Delineating COVID-19 subgroups using routine clinical data identifies distinct in-hospital outcomes

The COVID-19 pandemic has been a great challenge to healthcare systems worldwide. It highlighted the need for robust predictive models which can be readily deployed to uncover heterogeneities in disease course, aid decision-making and prioritise treatment. We adapted an unsupervised data-driven model-SuStaIn, to be utilised for short-term infectious disease like COVID-19, based on 11 commonly recorded clinical measures. We used 1344 patients from the National COVID-19 Chest Imaging Database (NCCID), hospitalised for RT-PCR confirmed COVID-19 disease, splitting them equally into a training and an independent validation cohort. We discovered three COVID-19 subtypes (General Haemodynamic, Renal and Immunological) and introduced disease severity stages, both of which were predictive of distinct risks of in-hospital mortality or escalation of treatment, when analysed using Cox Proportional Hazards models. A low-risk Normal-appearing subtype was also discovered. The model and our full pipeline are available online and can be adapted for future outbreaks of COVID-19 or other infectious disease

Automated airway quantification associates with mortality in idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis

OBJECTIVES: The study examined whether quantified airway metrics associate with mortality in idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF). METHODS: In an observational cohort study (n = 90) of IPF patients from Ege University Hospital, an airway analysis tool AirQuant calculated median airway intersegmental tapering and segmental tortuosity across the 2nd to 6th airway generations. Intersegmental tapering measures the difference in median diameter between adjacent airway segments. Tortuosity evaluates the ratio of measured segmental length against direct end-to-end segmental length. Univariable linear regression analyses examined relationships between AirQuant variables, clinical variables, and lung function tests. Univariable and multivariable Cox proportional hazards models estimated mortality risk with the latter adjusted for patient age, gender, smoking status, antifibrotic use, CT usual interstitial pneumonia (UIP) pattern, and either forced vital capacity (FVC) or diffusion capacity of carbon monoxide (DLco) if obtained within 3 months of the CT. RESULTS: No significant collinearity existed between AirQuant variables and clinical or functional variables. On univariable Cox analyses, male gender, smoking history, no antifibrotic use, reduced DLco, reduced intersegmental tapering, and increased segmental tortuosity associated with increased risk of death. On multivariable Cox analyses (adjusted using FVC), intersegmental tapering (hazard ratio (HR) = 0.75, 95% CI = 0.66-0.85, p < 0.001) and segmental tortuosity (HR = 1.74, 95% CI = 1.22-2.47, p = 0.002) independently associated with mortality. Results were maintained with adjustment using DLco. CONCLUSIONS: AirQuant generated measures of intersegmental tapering and segmental tortuosity independently associate with mortality in IPF patients. Abnormalities in proximal airway generations, which are not typically considered to be abnormal in IPF, have prognostic value. CLINICAL RELEVANCE STATEMENT: Quantitative measurements of intersegmental tapering and segmental tortuosity, in proximal (second to sixth) generation airway segments, independently associate with mortality in IPF. Automated airway analysis can estimate disease severity, which in IPF is not restricted to the distal airway tree. KEY POINTS: • AirQuant generates measures of intersegmental tapering and segmental tortuosity. • Automated airway quantification associates with mortality in IPF independent of established measures of disease severity. • Automated airway analysis could be used to refine patient selection for therapeutic trials in IPF

Multi-site, Multi-domain Airway Tree Modeling (ATM'22): A Public Benchmark for Pulmonary Airway Segmentation

Open international challenges are becoming the de facto standard for assessing computer vision and image analysis algorithms. In recent years, new methods have extended the reach of pulmonary airway segmentation that is closer to the limit of image resolution. Since EXACT'09 pulmonary airway segmentation, limited effort has been directed to quantitative comparison of newly emerged algorithms driven by the maturity of deep learning based approaches and clinical drive for resolving finer details of distal airways for early intervention of pulmonary diseases. Thus far, public annotated datasets are extremely limited, hindering the development of data-driven methods and detailed performance evaluation of new algorithms. To provide a benchmark for the medical imaging community, we organized the Multi-site, Multi-domain Airway Tree Modeling (ATM'22), which was held as an official challenge event during the MICCAI 2022 conference. ATM'22 provides large-scale CT scans with detailed pulmonary airway annotation, including 500 CT scans (300 for training, 50 for validation, and 150 for testing). The dataset was collected from different sites and it further included a portion of noisy COVID-19 CTs with ground-glass opacity and consolidation. Twenty-three teams participated in the entire phase of the challenge and the algorithms for the top ten teams are reviewed in this paper. Quantitative and qualitative results revealed that deep learning models embedded with the topological continuity enhancement achieved superior performance in general. ATM'22 challenge holds as an open-call design, the training data and the gold standard evaluation are available upon successful registration via its homepage.Comment: 32 pages, 16 figures. Homepage: https://atm22.grand-challenge.org/. Submitte

Delineating COVID-19 subgroups using routine clinical data identifies distinct in-hospital outcomes

Abstract The COVID-19 pandemic has been a great challenge to healthcare systems worldwide. It highlighted the need for robust predictive models which can be readily deployed to uncover heterogeneities in disease course, aid decision-making and prioritise treatment. We adapted an unsupervised data-driven model—SuStaIn, to be utilised for short-term infectious disease like COVID-19, based on 11 commonly recorded clinical measures. We used 1344 patients from the National COVID-19 Chest Imaging Database (NCCID), hospitalised for RT-PCR confirmed COVID-19 disease, splitting them equally into a training and an independent validation cohort. We discovered three COVID-19 subtypes (General Haemodynamic, Renal and Immunological) and introduced disease severity stages, both of which were predictive of distinct risks of in-hospital mortality or escalation of treatment, when analysed using Cox Proportional Hazards models. A low-risk Normal-appearing subtype was also discovered. The model and our full pipeline are available online and can be adapted for future outbreaks of COVID-19 or other infectious disease

Automated airway quantification associates with mortality in idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis

Funder: UCLH Biomedical Research Centre; doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100012317Objectives: The study examined whether quantified airway metrics associate with mortality in idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF). Methods: In an observational cohort study (n = 90) of IPF patients from Ege University Hospital, an airway analysis tool AirQuant calculated median airway intersegmental tapering and segmental tortuosity across the 2nd to 6th airway generations. Intersegmental tapering measures the difference in median diameter between adjacent airway segments. Tortuosity evaluates the ratio of measured segmental length against direct end-to-end segmental length. Univariable linear regression analyses examined relationships between AirQuant variables, clinical variables, and lung function tests. Univariable and multivariable Cox proportional hazards models estimated mortality risk with the latter adjusted for patient age, gender, smoking status, antifibrotic use, CT usual interstitial pneumonia (UIP) pattern, and either forced vital capacity (FVC) or diffusion capacity of carbon monoxide (DLco) if obtained within 3 months of the CT. Results: No significant collinearity existed between AirQuant variables and clinical or functional variables. On univariable Cox analyses, male gender, smoking history, no antifibrotic use, reduced DLco, reduced intersegmental tapering, and increased segmental tortuosity associated with increased risk of death. On multivariable Cox analyses (adjusted using FVC), intersegmental tapering (hazard ratio (HR) = 0.75, 95% CI = 0.66–0.85, p < 0.001) and segmental tortuosity (HR = 1.74, 95% CI = 1.22–2.47, p = 0.002) independently associated with mortality. Results were maintained with adjustment using DLco. Conclusions: AirQuant generated measures of intersegmental tapering and segmental tortuosity independently associate with mortality in IPF patients. Abnormalities in proximal airway generations, which are not typically considered to be abnormal in IPF, have prognostic value. Clinical relevance statement: Quantitative measurements of intersegmental tapering and segmental tortuosity, in proximal (second to sixth) generation airway segments, independently associate with mortality in IPF. Automated airway analysis can estimate disease severity, which in IPF is not restricted to the distal airway tree. Key Points: • AirQuant generates measures of intersegmental tapering and segmental tortuosity. • Automated airway quantification associates with mortality in IPF independent of established measures of disease severity. • Automated airway analysis could be used to refine patient selection for therapeutic trials in IPF. Graphical Abstract

Disease Progression Modeling in Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease

Rationale: The decades-long progression of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) renders identifying different trajectories of disease progression challenging.Objectives: To identify subtypes of patients with COPD with distinct longitudinal progression patterns using a novel machine-learning tool called "Subtype and Stage Inference" (SuStaIn) and to evaluate the utility of SuStaIn for patient stratification in COPD.Methods: We applied SuStaIn to cross-sectional computed tomography imaging markers in 3,698 Global Initiative for Chronic Obstructive Lung Disease (GOLD) 1-4 patients and 3,479 controls from the COPDGene (COPD Genetic Epidemiology) study to identify subtypes of patients with COPD. We confirmed the identified subtypes and progression patterns using ECLIPSE (Evaluation of COPD Longitudinally to Identify Predictive Surrogate Endpoints) data. We assessed the utility of SuStaIn for patient stratification by comparing SuStaIn subtypes and stages at baseline with longitudinal follow-up data.Measurements and Main Results: We identified two trajectories of disease progression in COPD: a "Tissue→Airway" subtype (n = 2,354, 70.4%), in which small airway dysfunction and emphysema precede large airway wall abnormalities, and an "Airway→Tissue" subtype (n = 988, 29.6%), in which large airway wall abnormalities precede emphysema and small airway dysfunction. Subtypes were reproducible in ECLIPSE. Baseline stage in both subtypes correlated with future FEV1/FVC decline (r = -0.16 [P &lt; 0.001] in the Tissue→Airway group; r = -0.14 [P = 0.011] in the Airway→Tissue group). SuStaIn placed 30% of smokers with normal lung function at elevated stages, suggesting imaging changes consistent with early COPD. Individuals with early changes were 2.5 times more likely to meet COPD diagnostic criteria at follow-up.Conclusions: We demonstrate two distinct patterns of disease progression in COPD using SuStaIn, likely representing different endotypes. One third of healthy smokers have detectable imaging changes, suggesting a new biomarker of "early COPD.